* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 18 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 17 23 26 29 27 25 24 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 16 19 23 18 19 19 33 40 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -6 -3 -1 -2 1 5 5 6 4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 278 274 263 254 250 235 243 230 221 211 212 214 239 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.7 29.1 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 161 161 161 157 155 158 163 157 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -52.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 6 5 8 6 8 7 8 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 78 75 77 78 75 77 77 75 71 66 64 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 22 33 38 33 27 28 32 37 9 -3 -38 200 MB DIV 86 97 111 106 83 82 74 64 47 62 50 6 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 2 2 0 -9 LAND (KM) 141 105 69 26 -9 -142 -122 27 71 340 225 100 -15 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 16.0 17.5 19.5 21.7 24.4 27.1 29.5 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.2 92.3 91.9 91.4 90.9 90.2 89.5 88.9 88.1 86.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 13 14 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 36 28 6 48 18 9 29 37 40 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -21. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 12 UTC ## ##