* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 09/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 42 40 37 35 35 34 32 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 42 40 37 35 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 31 30 28 27 28 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 3 3 5 7 13 13 14 12 13 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 2 2 0 0 -1 -6 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 12 13 11 310 282 264 255 247 250 226 209 188 199 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 161 162 161 161 161 162 162 161 162 163 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 73 67 69 67 64 64 66 65 65 64 65 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 2 -2 -7 -13 -13 -20 -25 -9 7 13 27 200 MB DIV 91 95 106 121 105 95 72 38 -2 10 18 49 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 -2 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 631 610 596 576 559 472 369 247 136 39 0 -37 -28 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.5 100.0 100.3 100.6 100.7 100.2 99.5 98.8 98.2 98.0 98.3 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 44 44 46 49 52 65 68 53 50 50 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 22. 20. 17. 15. 15. 14. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 09/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 09/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##