* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 48 43 38 34 27 25 20 18 18 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 48 43 38 34 27 25 20 18 18 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 47 46 42 37 33 30 28 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 15 17 17 19 24 24 29 28 34 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 5 5 4 1 1 0 -1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 294 280 265 271 262 253 260 253 263 259 265 264 266 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 148 149 151 152 152 151 152 152 154 156 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 62 60 57 57 56 54 51 49 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 18 12 9 7 20 43 50 64 71 76 82 200 MB DIV 19 25 44 42 41 26 10 19 26 16 11 -1 16 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 6 10 6 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 659 574 490 417 348 248 201 213 248 279 306 391 501 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 16.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.2 150.8 151.4 152.1 152.8 154.2 155.4 156.3 157.0 157.5 157.9 158.7 159.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 46 50 45 32 30 32 36 40 44 49 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -4. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 3. -2. -6. -13. -15. -20. -22. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##