* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 27 27 27 26 25 26 28 30 31 29 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 27 25 26 26 27 27 30 31 32 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 27 25 26 26 27 27 27 31 34 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 12 5 9 7 14 18 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 4 -3 -1 0 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 280 273 270 271 268 268 273 269 247 239 205 220 218 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 160 161 160 160 159 158 159 163 158 153 150 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 79 78 82 82 80 74 67 65 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 18 24 21 31 35 29 20 37 24 8 4 200 MB DIV 74 95 92 79 57 58 68 65 65 44 40 46 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 5 -3 12 0 7 3 LAND (KM) 98 52 6 -45 -95 -128 -148 -133 0 270 363 100 -45 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 16.0 17.6 19.3 21.5 24.0 26.6 28.8 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 91.4 91.4 91.1 90.9 90.2 89.6 88.9 88.4 87.5 86.6 85.5 84.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 13 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 16 40 44 26 38 46 25 37 36 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/25/15 18 UTC ## ##