* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 09/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 50 49 45 42 43 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 47 50 49 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 43 45 44 37 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 3 7 12 18 19 20 19 20 20 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 -2 -5 -3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 355 6 328 301 283 261 267 252 248 227 219 210 242 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 161 162 162 164 163 163 162 160 161 161 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 69 68 70 70 67 65 64 61 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 1 -4 -8 -6 -11 -9 -7 26 40 45 46 200 MB DIV 94 115 112 105 106 87 54 12 -3 8 29 20 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 2 2 2 0 -1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 600 577 556 522 489 384 242 101 -43 -151 -178 -194 -254 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.5 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.6 101.0 101.1 101.3 101.0 100.3 99.4 98.4 97.5 97.3 97.8 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 6 6 7 6 5 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 49 54 58 60 74 80 50 53 44 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 8. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 25. 24. 20. 17. 18. 16. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 09/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 09/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##