* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 42 46 50 52 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 42 46 50 52 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 37 41 44 48 51 54 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 19 16 17 12 17 11 14 18 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 2 4 5 7 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 274 272 260 256 237 236 261 264 308 329 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 149 152 153 154 156 159 158 157 158 157 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 133 134 133 133 135 141 139 139 143 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 39 37 41 41 43 43 44 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 17 8 1 31 37 35 33 29 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -9 1 3 0 16 -2 2 -3 5 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 0 -1 -6 -4 -4 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2084 2100 2077 2053 2031 1975 1816 1680 1562 1412 1195 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.4 24.5 23.8 23.2 22.9 22.5 21.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.4 45.9 46.5 46.8 47.2 47.8 49.2 50.4 51.5 52.9 54.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 5 7 5 6 8 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 19 22 22 19 24 34 48 47 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 29. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/26/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)