* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 09/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 44 48 48 47 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 38 44 48 48 47 48 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 37 38 38 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 13 9 14 16 21 27 26 29 21 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 1 -2 -4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 329 345 343 324 305 333 328 341 357 5 357 329 285 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 167 167 165 163 162 160 153 147 140 134 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 144 142 140 139 137 134 128 122 117 112 108 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 68 70 72 70 67 63 59 62 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -20 -10 8 21 21 32 23 12 -18 -46 -47 -35 200 MB DIV 0 2 9 9 -14 6 -27 -2 -27 -28 6 16 5 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 2 1 4 1 6 0 -1 0 0 6 LAND (KM) 552 603 656 698 740 812 893 859 742 652 604 633 715 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.3 27.0 27.8 28.7 29.7 30.7 31.9 33.0 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.6 68.7 68.8 68.9 69.4 70.1 70.9 71.4 71.5 70.9 69.7 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 68 74 80 82 78 62 47 59 31 19 18 19 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 24. 28. 28. 27. 28. 28. 28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 09/26/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED