* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 23 24 26 27 25 20 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 27 30 29 24 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 29 29 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 15 14 12 16 15 28 34 51 51 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 -1 4 3 1 6 6 3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 260 262 262 260 250 255 239 253 217 220 216 228 235 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.3 28.6 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 160 160 158 156 158 161 159 151 147 142 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 5 8 7 9 7 7 3 5 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 77 78 79 77 76 68 65 65 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 20 22 32 27 34 33 45 54 27 -7 -3 200 MB DIV 94 85 66 54 47 54 69 55 58 47 31 6 16 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 67 16 -34 -99 -164 -197 -69 -35 239 325 97 -19 -134 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.9 18.7 20.8 23.5 26.2 28.9 30.6 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 91.4 91.4 91.2 91.0 90.6 90.3 89.8 89.3 88.8 88.3 87.4 86.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 8 10 12 14 14 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 21 39 44 44 0 34 19 35 40 22 25 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -15. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. -5. -10. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/26/15 00 UTC ## ##