* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 09/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 48 54 51 49 48 48 47 39 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 48 54 51 49 48 48 47 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 42 45 46 46 47 49 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 7 6 14 12 18 12 12 11 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 3 2 3 -1 3 -1 0 3 7 SHEAR DIR 352 346 346 326 288 286 272 279 273 275 241 199 169 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 161 160 161 161 162 161 163 163 165 166 166 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -52.0 -51.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 71 72 74 72 69 65 64 62 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 14 16 14 14 15 16 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -25 -18 -19 -21 -11 -21 -10 -2 5 4 20 200 MB DIV 111 103 92 96 101 68 51 8 0 6 39 19 46 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 613 591 570 542 514 464 398 369 361 381 389 415 393 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 13.7 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.5 102.0 102.4 102.8 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.4 103.8 104.3 105.0 105.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 2 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 55 70 79 83 85 76 67 62 60 50 49 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 8. 10. 11. 9. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 23. 29. 26. 24. 23. 23. 22. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 09/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 09/26/15 00 UTC ##