* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 09/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 39 43 43 43 45 48 46 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 39 43 43 43 45 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 32 34 34 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 8 12 16 16 25 24 24 18 14 16 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 1 -1 -3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 340 340 309 307 325 341 336 354 12 23 348 287 263 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 165 165 163 163 162 158 153 144 141 138 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 140 138 137 138 136 131 127 119 118 116 112 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 72 73 72 67 63 60 59 63 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -2 26 32 28 40 29 35 -5 -36 -48 -33 -31 200 MB DIV 4 12 25 -7 5 -13 -28 -18 -29 2 6 37 33 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 -1 3 -1 4 -2 1 -2 0 4 17 LAND (KM) 677 719 761 786 811 858 885 800 709 610 543 506 579 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.4 31.4 32.8 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.7 68.9 69.0 69.3 69.5 70.3 71.2 71.8 72.3 72.6 72.3 71.4 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 80 81 76 71 62 49 62 57 37 26 18 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 23. 23. 23. 25. 28. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 09/26/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)