* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 24 26 28 30 30 29 29 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 24 26 26 27 27 30 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 22 24 26 26 27 27 30 30 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 16 17 30 29 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -1 -3 3 0 2 -2 5 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 285 287 274 240 250 272 249 237 253 233 250 270 283 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 161 161 159 159 156 156 158 161 157 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 76 76 74 78 75 72 65 58 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 26 25 28 31 37 3 -4 7 18 16 6 200 MB DIV 81 65 64 66 61 39 22 10 31 24 7 -4 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 3 -1 10 0 2 LAND (KM) 148 83 26 -17 -79 -111 -146 -103 -18 130 341 367 333 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.7 16.9 18.4 20.2 22.2 24.2 25.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.3 91.0 90.8 90.5 90.1 90.0 90.0 90.2 90.3 90.4 90.3 89.9 89.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 10 10 9 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 40 27 36 43 44 25 29 26 31 40 42 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 3. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/26/15 06 UTC ## ##