* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 09/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 47 50 49 48 47 42 29 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 47 50 49 48 47 42 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 39 40 42 39 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 8 12 19 18 19 15 18 17 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 1 1 1 0 1 3 -3 2 6 5 SHEAR DIR 2 355 342 303 277 288 284 280 258 248 211 207 222 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 161 162 162 164 163 164 164 165 164 164 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 72 73 71 68 63 62 61 60 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 16 17 14 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -24 -15 -20 -22 -22 -18 -15 -8 12 35 23 12 200 MB DIV 89 77 81 81 79 62 34 11 11 38 32 51 14 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 4 5 2 1 0 -2 1 2 LAND (KM) 627 593 559 514 468 369 286 228 197 153 93 55 33 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 5 4 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 74 81 83 84 84 76 58 47 40 35 32 30 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 8. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 22. 25. 24. 23. 22. 17. 4. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 09/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 09/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##