* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 51 54 57 59 65 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 51 54 57 59 65 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 42 46 51 55 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 12 10 16 7 9 18 20 23 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 0 4 4 2 0 4 3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 277 259 257 261 238 238 264 281 6 27 22 15 356 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 155 159 160 160 160 164 169 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 133 132 133 139 143 147 147 151 155 151 148 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 39 37 35 38 41 40 43 43 43 43 43 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 10 1 0 10 36 33 39 34 24 8 0 -19 -39 200 MB DIV -7 0 -3 21 25 11 3 -15 -18 -29 -15 -17 -26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -2 -2 -3 -5 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 2115 2075 2037 2009 1982 1882 1712 1510 1277 1061 864 767 736 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.3 23.6 23.1 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 46.7 47.2 47.5 47.8 48.7 50.2 52.1 54.4 56.7 59.0 60.5 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 3 6 8 10 10 11 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 21 21 19 26 41 42 39 49 54 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 29. 35. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/26/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)