* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 41 45 48 53 54 60 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 41 45 48 53 54 60 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 31 33 36 38 41 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 11 15 18 19 29 26 22 19 22 21 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 -4 -3 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 333 316 302 320 327 329 334 339 359 347 327 289 258 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 163 163 161 162 158 151 144 141 136 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 138 137 137 136 136 131 125 119 119 116 113 114 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 73 74 73 71 68 64 61 60 66 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 11 15 15 21 30 850 MB ENV VOR 8 37 38 40 46 54 47 58 43 -2 -23 13 23 200 MB DIV 24 35 4 17 20 -17 -1 -6 -30 -15 7 16 38 700-850 TADV 2 3 -1 2 3 0 1 0 2 0 9 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 763 799 836 860 884 892 789 694 624 605 650 798 764 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.4 29.1 29.9 30.8 31.7 33.0 34.6 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.0 69.2 69.5 69.9 70.8 71.5 71.9 71.8 71.1 69.5 67.2 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 7 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 83 76 65 58 53 60 53 34 24 26 19 31 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 12. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 33. 34. 40. 47. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 09/26/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)