* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 19 20 21 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 15 20 23 27 28 29 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 20 23 27 26 24 21 20 25 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 32 37 42 40 39 44 52 41 32 30 35 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 2 5 5 2 -4 -5 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 252 252 246 244 248 231 228 211 219 237 301 322 327 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 28.8 28.1 26.6 25.8 25.9 26.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 156 157 159 163 150 138 118 108 109 120 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 145 145 148 151 134 119 100 88 90 101 115 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 7 4 6 3 7 2 6 3 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 76 73 74 67 58 52 46 42 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 58 55 46 39 22 17 -6 6 -24 -33 -82 200 MB DIV 86 79 65 61 64 68 81 65 28 -8 -40 -66 -86 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 7 4 5 8 14 3 -2 -10 -4 -8 LAND (KM) -93 -151 -79 30 140 422 123 -36 -213 -311 -292 -211 -73 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.6 22.6 25.3 28.0 30.3 31.9 32.8 32.6 31.7 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.7 88.9 89.0 89.1 89.2 89.4 89.9 90.7 91.5 91.8 91.8 92.0 92.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 12 14 13 10 7 2 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 92 30 15 23 30 44 43 15 0 0 0 0 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. -11. -21. -29. -32. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/26/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)