* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 50 49 46 38 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 50 49 46 38 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 50 47 44 37 32 29 27 25 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 28 30 34 35 36 30 30 30 35 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 4 4 0 0 -2 1 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 257 253 251 250 255 256 264 258 261 261 255 259 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 148 148 151 151 151 151 152 153 155 156 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 58 58 53 54 53 55 55 61 63 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 4 21 18 30 41 43 56 67 82 75 77 200 MB DIV 26 8 14 17 17 12 25 34 20 28 31 34 63 700-850 TADV 13 13 8 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 438 379 321 283 251 188 200 234 260 306 406 507 614 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.1 15.7 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 151.5 152.0 152.5 153.0 153.5 154.6 155.6 156.3 156.7 157.2 158.1 159.1 160.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 53 50 47 45 39 32 31 32 36 47 53 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -4. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -39. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##