* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 30 33 32 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 24 26 26 27 30 30 28 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 22 24 26 26 27 30 31 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 7 3 2 4 7 9 21 27 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 270 276 243 239 273 235 300 197 224 250 269 266 314 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 160 161 159 158 155 155 157 159 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 8 6 8 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 73 74 78 75 69 64 61 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 16 21 17 18 16 -8 -30 -13 4 1 -5 200 MB DIV 51 42 51 54 38 28 15 14 12 18 12 -1 -26 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 137 77 23 -10 -45 -167 -203 -80 29 139 249 337 360 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.9 19.2 20.9 22.6 23.6 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 91.6 91.3 90.9 90.8 90.6 90.6 90.8 91.0 91.3 91.7 92.0 92.0 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 26 36 42 46 0 30 38 27 40 55 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ##