* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 38 36 34 34 37 33 30 28 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 38 36 34 34 37 33 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 29 28 28 28 27 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 14 18 19 21 19 18 21 16 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 1 4 2 7 0 1 7 4 2 SHEAR DIR 334 333 286 271 277 277 276 263 262 230 215 188 201 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 162 163 164 165 164 164 165 165 163 164 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 7 10 8 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 74 73 70 65 61 61 60 61 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 13 15 13 12 13 15 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -16 -22 -24 -18 -25 -7 -6 21 18 14 -5 200 MB DIV 70 76 66 66 62 45 6 -5 14 44 0 23 10 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 2 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 544 505 472 439 406 317 228 182 158 102 14 -16 0 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 3 4 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 77 81 82 78 71 48 37 35 33 31 26 54 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 6. 5. 6. 10. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 11. 9. 9. 12. 8. 5. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932015 INVEST 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##