* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 49 51 53 57 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 44 49 51 53 57 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 32 35 38 40 44 48 52 55 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 13 12 16 12 10 12 14 26 22 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 2 3 3 4 3 1 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 253 255 258 236 225 261 263 321 350 348 334 342 347 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 158 159 161 162 164 167 170 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 133 133 136 140 144 148 149 150 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 35 33 36 39 40 42 44 46 46 45 45 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 12 38 35 27 26 18 27 11 14 -1 -5 200 MB DIV 3 -3 16 22 11 0 0 -20 -5 -6 11 -12 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -5 0 -3 -2 -5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 2064 2034 2005 1968 1930 1813 1648 1458 1238 1072 958 887 839 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.5 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.8 47.2 47.6 47.9 48.3 49.3 50.9 52.8 55.1 57.0 58.5 59.6 60.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 5 6 8 10 10 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 22 21 20 21 31 37 37 39 44 46 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 21. 23. 27. 31. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/26/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED