* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 09/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 40 40 40 45 61 63 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 40 40 40 45 61 63 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 26 28 28 29 32 39 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 18 24 21 29 25 33 23 18 14 33 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 -4 -1 -3 -4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 309 316 324 329 335 330 340 341 357 328 283 242 233 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 162 162 161 160 154 148 142 138 135 136 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 136 136 135 133 128 123 119 117 116 115 96 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 72 73 73 72 69 66 64 64 69 74 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 7 13 26 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 34 49 53 43 43 12 20 3 40 22 11 200 MB DIV 34 7 16 2 0 -8 5 -25 7 14 51 48 50 700-850 TADV 1 -1 3 2 0 0 2 7 7 14 4 11 10 LAND (KM) 818 848 878 913 942 851 747 650 545 483 516 534 430 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.5 30.2 31.3 32.8 34.8 37.2 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.1 69.4 69.8 70.1 70.9 71.6 72.2 72.4 71.7 70.3 68.2 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 7 9 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 66 61 55 49 49 62 42 31 21 20 14 55 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 5. 18. 18. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 20. 20. 25. 41. 43. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 09/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 09/26/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED