* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 32 36 33 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 30 31 32 36 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 29 29 29 28 25 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 28 30 32 30 34 32 46 53 63 69 76 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 3 0 -3 -8 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 246 241 252 259 261 255 223 222 212 220 223 231 223 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.7 28.1 26.2 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 159 159 161 162 149 139 116 111 112 112 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 148 149 151 150 134 122 100 96 96 94 91 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 75 73 71 71 73 73 75 57 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 9 8 6 7 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR 54 45 46 58 62 47 33 11 16 40 42 31 39 200 MB DIV 82 57 57 81 91 82 90 61 79 51 71 45 49 700-850 TADV 3 3 7 7 4 17 12 26 0 -17 -9 0 -7 LAND (KM) -71 -68 -66 19 148 440 182 -90 -354 -367 -237 -136 -12 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.8 22.9 25.6 28.6 31.3 33.6 35.0 35.6 36.0 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 88.2 88.1 87.9 87.8 87.6 87.2 86.8 86.5 85.4 83.1 80.2 77.7 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 13 14 15 13 11 12 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 94 90 82 21 30 51 23 21 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -8. -17. -26. -34. -42. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 11. 8. 2. -7. -13. -20. -27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/26/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)