* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 52 49 44 36 29 24 19 18 16 16 17 V (KT) LAND 55 55 52 49 44 36 29 24 19 18 16 16 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 52 48 41 35 32 29 27 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 27 32 34 37 33 27 26 28 32 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 4 4 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 254 248 255 253 253 261 258 267 249 260 252 248 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 148 149 150 151 152 154 155 156 158 159 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 59 57 54 55 57 60 65 65 68 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 23 18 19 46 52 59 70 84 82 94 105 200 MB DIV 4 12 19 16 12 28 52 55 38 52 61 71 58 700-850 TADV 12 9 2 4 2 -2 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 413 363 314 286 260 213 234 301 382 480 575 691 795 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.4 15.0 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 151.8 152.3 152.8 153.3 153.8 154.9 155.8 156.7 157.7 158.7 159.7 160.8 161.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 52 48 45 42 34 30 32 43 53 53 50 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -11. -19. -26. -31. -36. -37. -39. -39. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##