* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 50 52 53 57 61 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 50 52 53 57 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 40 44 48 50 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 12 16 16 10 8 15 26 32 21 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 4 3 3 1 -4 -3 4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 257 257 234 224 245 246 283 346 358 2 341 6 7 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 158 159 160 159 160 165 168 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 135 137 139 143 145 146 150 149 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -54.8 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 34 36 39 41 40 44 44 47 51 52 47 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 14 44 39 34 32 30 25 14 18 16 13 0 200 MB DIV 1 7 19 5 0 4 -7 -26 -5 -5 -11 -10 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 -1 0 -4 -6 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 2025 1988 1953 1901 1849 1696 1478 1262 1076 954 887 813 750 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.4 23.0 22.9 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 47.6 48.0 48.4 48.9 50.3 52.4 54.6 56.7 58.3 59.3 60.4 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 8 10 10 9 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 19 19 28 42 40 39 43 47 51 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 23. 27. 31. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/27/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED