* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 30 31 32 34 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 29 29 28 26 23 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 30 30 31 35 34 40 44 47 45 44 38 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 1 4 8 0 -4 -6 -1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 251 257 264 262 257 248 219 222 223 240 246 252 250 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.2 28.5 27.9 26.5 26.4 26.7 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 159 163 157 145 135 117 116 120 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 146 149 152 143 128 116 98 97 100 107 111 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 8 6 7 4 6 0 3 0 3 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 73 71 71 72 70 66 61 54 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 9 7 8 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 45 51 54 53 43 43 36 19 51 26 41 54 51 200 MB DIV 60 68 78 76 69 82 79 35 40 23 10 -11 -34 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 3 8 10 13 8 -4 -6 -5 -10 -16 LAND (KM) -109 -123 -28 98 225 318 99 -69 -247 -300 -302 -200 -39 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.4 23.6 26.4 29.1 31.3 32.9 33.2 32.9 32.2 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.5 88.5 88.5 88.4 88.2 88.2 88.2 87.6 86.4 84.8 83.2 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 12 13 14 12 10 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 90 54 34 30 33 46 22 17 0 0 0 0 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -10. -18. -26. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -2. -2. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 1. -4. -9. -9. -11. -12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/27/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED