* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 46 40 35 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 46 40 35 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 52 48 44 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 34 35 37 35 29 29 25 30 25 26 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 -1 -4 0 -1 -1 -4 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 255 251 256 253 256 258 255 262 261 248 240 233 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 150 151 152 153 155 156 157 159 161 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 56 54 55 54 60 63 67 67 72 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR 4 14 13 13 26 49 44 69 65 79 79 100 112 200 MB DIV 11 9 -3 5 20 32 48 40 52 54 68 82 110 700-850 TADV 8 2 1 -2 -3 0 1 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 377 341 306 274 250 255 293 364 461 554 645 756 875 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.7 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 152.5 153.0 153.5 154.0 154.5 155.6 156.5 157.4 158.4 159.4 160.4 161.5 162.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 46 42 38 35 29 31 39 53 54 52 49 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -15. -20. -30. -37. -41. -43. -42. -41. -39. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##