* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172015 09/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 48 50 51 48 43 40 35 30 25 24 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 48 50 51 48 43 40 35 30 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 44 47 50 50 48 46 44 42 39 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 14 13 15 18 20 20 20 19 18 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 4 5 -2 1 -2 0 3 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 320 278 287 284 261 274 256 254 226 220 203 252 350 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 163 164 164 164 163 165 164 163 164 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 7 9 7 10 7 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 71 67 63 62 60 63 64 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 14 13 11 12 10 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -30 -31 -24 -16 -11 6 -9 3 11 11 -2 7 200 MB DIV 87 64 55 68 64 28 13 5 25 30 39 0 23 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 498 466 435 400 364 289 228 164 103 103 133 122 122 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.1 102.9 102.5 101.9 101.5 101.8 102.6 102.8 102.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 80 82 81 75 65 47 41 37 34 32 32 31 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 13. 8. 5. 0. -5. -10. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 SEVENTEEN 09/27/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 57% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 40% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 SEVENTEEN 09/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##