* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 37 44 48 50 56 63 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 37 44 48 50 56 63 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 26 28 32 36 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 17 12 7 8 17 24 28 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 4 4 2 -2 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 233 228 244 251 253 6 10 2 6 357 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 159 160 159 161 165 169 170 170 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 137 139 141 143 146 148 150 151 154 154 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.2 -55.1 -54.7 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 37 38 38 40 43 45 50 52 51 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 43 43 39 31 40 30 27 11 16 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 15 10 -4 -2 3 -22 8 -5 14 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 2 0 0 -1 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1969 1920 1872 1794 1716 1494 1244 1057 946 834 706 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.4 22.9 22.7 22.9 23.4 23.6 23.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.8 48.2 48.7 49.4 50.1 52.2 54.7 56.8 58.4 60.0 61.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 8 11 11 9 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 21 26 43 42 39 44 50 62 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 820 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 25. 31. 38. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/27/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)