* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 09/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 34 36 37 37 41 42 39 31 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 34 36 37 37 41 42 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 31 34 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 16 18 26 19 26 18 16 9 31 54 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 -2 0 -4 -2 -5 0 3 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 317 321 331 321 329 350 341 4 341 270 232 230 235 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.9 28.2 26.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 160 160 156 149 144 140 136 140 122 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 134 135 135 130 124 120 118 115 117 101 78 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 74 72 69 68 69 73 77 74 68 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 41 61 68 57 49 25 28 42 75 44 39 -8 200 MB DIV 27 8 1 -7 -16 1 -8 24 19 80 39 91 51 700-850 TADV 3 2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 5 7 18 35 44 LAND (KM) 865 893 922 951 904 795 689 560 448 402 451 340 180 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.3 29.9 30.9 32.3 34.2 36.3 38.5 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 69.0 69.4 69.8 70.3 71.1 72.0 72.7 72.7 71.8 70.7 69.7 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 9 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 48 47 53 50 34 23 20 13 25 41 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -8. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 16. 17. 17. 21. 22. 19. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 09/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 09/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 09/27/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)