* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 31 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 31 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 36 33 30 26 23 22 23 24 25 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 34 33 31 31 26 21 21 20 25 23 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 262 266 261 262 256 264 261 272 263 279 259 261 240 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 153 154 156 157 159 162 164 165 165 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 62 60 57 58 59 62 63 64 65 65 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 16 25 43 51 63 70 85 90 107 122 139 200 MB DIV -1 -4 -2 17 35 47 52 57 57 53 48 71 96 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 -1 -5 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 352 308 279 283 304 393 513 637 761 897 993 1095 1209 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.2 15.8 15.4 15.0 14.6 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 153.3 154.1 154.8 155.5 156.1 157.4 158.8 160.1 161.3 162.6 164.1 165.6 167.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 35 31 28 28 38 51 48 45 41 41 49 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -25. -30. -33. -33. -34. -32. -26. -21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##