* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 61 59 53 44 28 23 19 16 16 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 61 59 53 44 28 23 19 16 16 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 57 62 64 63 57 49 41 37 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 18 14 13 23 22 22 23 22 20 19 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 3 2 0 -4 1 0 7 7 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 298 291 285 275 261 257 260 241 241 249 239 252 292 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 164 164 163 162 162 162 163 164 164 165 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 70 66 61 59 59 62 64 66 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 15 13 10 2 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -30 -27 -19 -13 12 10 2 8 6 4 -22 -38 200 MB DIV 59 47 48 48 54 64 35 54 43 70 23 31 1 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 5 3 3 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 -3 LAND (KM) 420 377 334 301 267 197 158 149 171 168 144 133 152 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.0 102.9 102.8 102.7 102.3 102.1 102.1 102.3 102.4 102.6 102.9 103.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 79 71 59 51 45 38 34 34 34 34 32 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 16. 14. 8. -1. -17. -22. -26. -29. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 4.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##