* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 41 48 51 53 58 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 41 48 51 53 58 64 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 32 36 40 42 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 12 9 4 14 20 28 25 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 2 2 3 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 229 249 265 268 329 5 357 351 354 357 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 162 162 163 166 171 170 169 169 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 143 145 147 150 152 153 153 150 150 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 40 42 44 49 54 56 49 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 7 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 39 38 44 41 39 27 18 22 29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 13 3 -2 -8 4 -4 4 -7 0 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 0 1 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1944 1879 1814 1717 1619 1392 1157 1025 949 885 804 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.6 24.1 24.6 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.8 49.4 50.3 51.2 53.5 56.1 58.0 59.5 60.6 61.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 11 11 8 6 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 21 28 36 38 47 44 47 53 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 26. 28. 33. 39. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/27/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)