* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 28 32 35 37 40 42 40 34 24 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 28 32 35 37 40 42 40 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 25 26 29 33 36 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 24 22 19 20 11 8 32 56 82 95 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 0 2 -3 -12 -18 SHEAR DIR 326 332 327 333 343 337 359 336 265 223 210 214 220 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.3 27.9 26.6 25.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 162 158 153 145 141 136 120 105 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 136 136 137 133 129 122 119 115 101 89 84 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 69 67 67 72 74 73 71 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 55 66 57 52 54 27 31 53 91 102 78 68 200 MB DIV 15 -2 -10 -13 -13 13 -3 16 66 86 77 70 50 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 0 -2 -1 -1 3 -4 2 4 21 30 LAND (KM) 849 872 894 912 899 795 691 556 395 198 81 4 -144 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.7 29.2 30.1 31.5 33.6 35.7 37.7 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.5 70.0 70.5 71.0 72.1 73.3 74.3 74.9 74.9 75.0 75.5 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 60 56 51 52 58 56 43 23 22 19 49 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 0. -6. -15. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. 20. 14. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 09/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 09/27/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED