* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 18 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 20 20 22 22 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 32 33 36 37 43 46 44 44 57 57 80 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 4 6 4 0 -2 -2 -6 0 -12 -12 SHEAR DIR 260 255 245 245 248 228 232 230 246 232 229 220 209 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.5 27.8 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.1 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 163 164 157 145 133 119 120 123 127 125 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 152 152 143 129 113 99 101 105 108 104 92 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 3 6 1 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 74 71 69 70 73 74 71 67 66 66 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 52 44 44 28 19 46 34 77 117 121 120 200 MB DIV 62 69 68 41 54 73 33 45 37 29 37 62 46 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 9 8 11 3 -8 -14 -23 -20 -22 4 LAND (KM) -18 106 234 389 315 106 -100 -234 -272 -247 -93 -101 -286 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.5 23.7 25.1 26.5 29.3 31.6 32.7 32.9 32.7 33.1 34.4 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.3 88.2 88.1 88.0 88.1 88.0 87.2 85.7 83.5 81.2 79.7 79.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 14 13 9 6 8 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 35 41 47 21 14 0 0 0 23 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. -10. -20. -30. -37. -45. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -5. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. -2. -4. -10. -16. -20. -21. -28. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/27/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)