* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 31 28 23 21 19 19 20 23 28 32 V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 31 28 23 21 19 19 20 23 28 32 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 34 32 28 25 25 25 26 28 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 33 31 31 31 23 20 20 26 26 22 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 1 -3 -5 -5 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 265 260 258 252 255 258 267 260 261 259 254 244 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 153 154 155 155 157 159 161 164 164 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 57 59 60 63 62 63 63 63 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 13 32 38 43 56 57 79 89 103 127 141 200 MB DIV -9 -8 14 37 53 61 50 50 41 60 54 72 73 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 -3 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 343 322 317 327 352 423 519 608 691 802 909 998 1079 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.3 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 153.7 154.4 155.0 155.7 156.3 157.4 158.6 159.7 160.7 161.8 162.9 164.2 165.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 29 29 30 42 54 50 46 44 41 42 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -22. -24. -26. -26. -25. -22. -17. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##