* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 57 51 38 29 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 57 51 38 29 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 57 55 49 41 35 32 31 29 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 17 17 19 21 18 20 23 19 17 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 284 282 259 262 260 257 248 227 243 232 250 219 77 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 164 164 163 162 162 165 166 166 166 166 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 8 10 6 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 66 64 60 60 63 66 64 64 63 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 17 15 8 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -23 -14 -7 -6 15 14 6 -4 -8 -28 -44 -39 200 MB DIV 56 61 69 82 80 59 62 43 21 17 13 32 19 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 3 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 353 307 261 231 200 139 123 98 91 108 114 197 301 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 16.9 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 102.8 102.6 102.4 102.2 101.8 101.5 101.4 101.6 102.3 103.5 104.5 105.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 51 42 39 37 33 34 33 30 29 29 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 1. -12. -21. -29. -35. -39. -39. -36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##