* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 09/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 44 47 49 49 52 52 46 37 25 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 44 47 49 49 52 52 46 37 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 41 43 46 48 51 55 60 60 52 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 23 21 18 25 15 14 8 31 59 91 106 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -3 -3 0 -3 -1 -5 2 0 0 -20 -19 SHEAR DIR 328 323 334 345 342 348 15 343 226 231 219 222 217 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 26.8 25.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 162 162 162 158 151 145 141 137 122 105 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 138 137 137 134 127 122 119 116 103 88 82 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -54.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 68 66 67 68 72 73 73 72 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 62 55 51 51 35 23 42 83 72 96 61 48 200 MB DIV -4 -9 -3 -18 -11 -15 7 41 67 52 100 56 72 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -3 1 -2 1 2 0 6 14 26 27 LAND (KM) 849 866 883 906 894 787 677 562 391 240 143 55 -42 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.6 29.3 30.1 31.7 33.7 35.9 37.9 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.5 70.0 70.6 71.1 72.3 73.4 74.2 74.5 74.2 74.3 74.7 75.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 9 10 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 60 57 52 52 58 56 41 24 21 16 44 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 0. -6. -16. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 22. 22. 16. 7. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 09/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 09/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 09/27/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)