* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 36 33 29 24 21 18 19 21 22 25 V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 36 33 29 24 21 18 19 21 22 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 39 37 33 30 28 28 28 29 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 31 30 30 26 22 24 25 29 26 26 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 260 264 257 253 255 253 260 252 259 253 262 252 257 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 153 153 153 155 156 158 161 162 161 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 59 60 60 58 57 58 60 59 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 28 35 41 51 52 73 81 97 119 136 133 200 MB DIV -3 16 38 57 46 50 31 27 35 48 43 75 73 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 344 336 344 365 395 443 516 606 723 844 959 1013 1038 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.2 14.9 14.6 14.1 13.9 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 154.2 154.9 155.6 156.2 156.7 157.6 158.7 159.9 161.1 162.3 163.6 164.3 164.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 29 30 35 45 52 48 46 44 41 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -26. -24. -23. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##