* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 52 46 35 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 52 46 35 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 52 46 39 36 34 32 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 18 19 23 16 20 28 24 26 20 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -2 -1 5 0 4 2 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 282 273 274 272 264 255 240 239 248 249 272 292 313 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 163 163 164 164 165 165 164 166 167 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 64 63 59 59 62 64 65 65 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 17 16 15 11 6 4 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -15 -6 -6 14 23 20 14 0 -10 -21 -14 -28 200 MB DIV 72 76 78 69 64 61 89 29 36 33 30 60 75 700-850 TADV 6 6 4 2 1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 3 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 331 283 234 205 176 121 73 77 111 91 55 127 262 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.7 17.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 102.8 102.6 102.4 102.1 101.8 101.6 101.8 102.4 103.0 103.3 104.1 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 53 44 38 36 34 31 29 29 29 29 27 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -13. -18. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 2. -4. -15. -24. -26. -33. -38. -40. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##