* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 45 46 47 49 50 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 45 46 47 49 50 52 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 45 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 23 22 18 18 22 14 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -2 0 -2 0 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 334 347 348 343 6 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 159 154 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 135 135 134 132 128 123 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 67 67 65 67 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 61 62 64 63 41 21 48 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 18 0 -2 -13 14 15 43 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 0 0 -1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 882 900 913 925 874 786 719 679 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 52 50 49 50 59 47 30 31 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)