* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 25 26 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 33 32 31 38 44 46 46 59 63 84 98 100 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 9 7 1 -1 -4 -8 -5 -14 -20 -19 SHEAR DIR 253 255 252 231 225 228 219 233 225 231 222 214 206 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.1 26.5 26.1 26.0 25.6 24.6 23.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 160 153 148 139 118 115 113 109 102 93 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 153 148 140 133 120 101 98 96 92 86 80 75 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 4 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 71 73 73 73 73 70 64 58 59 63 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 59 42 43 41 29 34 69 58 86 100 103 98 99 200 MB DIV 55 55 69 89 78 60 49 43 26 27 34 31 69 700-850 TADV 6 11 7 7 12 6 -7 -14 -26 -23 -10 8 31 LAND (KM) 169 313 417 279 182 -73 -289 -388 -276 -266 -367 -433 -548 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 24.4 25.7 27.2 28.6 31.2 33.1 33.9 34.6 35.7 37.4 39.3 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 87.6 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 86.5 84.5 82.1 80.6 80.1 80.4 81.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 13 12 9 10 9 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 43 49 35 20 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 0. -10. -20. -31. -41. -51. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. -1. -5. -15. -22. -30. -42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/28/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED