* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 31 29 25 21 18 17 18 19 22 28 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 29 25 21 18 17 18 19 22 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 29 26 25 25 26 28 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 30 27 23 20 18 17 21 16 20 18 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -1 1 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 266 260 255 257 251 255 268 257 263 251 257 233 242 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 154 154 155 156 158 160 161 163 163 164 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 61 63 62 60 62 60 63 62 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 28 36 46 52 47 65 73 93 105 128 123 200 MB DIV 1 26 46 38 68 40 26 21 54 57 60 58 109 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 348 366 394 419 453 537 625 722 816 928 1019 1092 1154 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.0 13.6 13.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 155.1 155.7 156.2 156.8 157.4 158.6 159.7 160.8 161.8 162.8 163.8 164.7 165.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 32 37 45 56 51 45 43 41 40 41 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -15. -19. -22. -23. -22. -21. -18. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##