* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 53 51 39 29 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 53 51 39 29 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 54 51 43 36 33 30 28 26 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 21 22 23 21 25 30 24 17 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 2 3 7 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 288 287 278 267 262 255 235 245 246 250 260 280 306 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 164 163 164 165 165 165 165 165 163 161 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 8 11 7 10 8 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 62 61 58 58 61 63 65 67 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 16 16 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -7 -9 11 19 17 15 8 -12 -15 -23 -3 9 200 MB DIV 86 65 62 66 52 62 51 37 36 33 41 55 82 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 0 0 -3 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 311 277 241 207 173 125 111 111 157 196 237 261 322 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 102.8 102.7 102.4 102.2 102.0 102.4 102.9 103.6 104.3 105.2 106.2 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 42 38 36 33 30 29 29 31 31 32 47 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -12. -18. -19. -19. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -16. -26. -34. -38. -40. -42. -43. -42. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##