* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 44 46 48 51 53 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 44 46 48 51 53 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 34 36 39 41 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 19 19 21 17 20 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 343 341 334 342 1 342 346 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 161 158 150 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 133 133 133 134 133 126 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 65 64 64 64 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 63 66 67 59 58 55 62 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 11 13 -14 -8 9 4 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 859 867 881 895 933 845 727 592 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.2 29.0 30.1 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.9 70.4 70.7 71.1 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 58 57 54 51 52 56 31 24 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)