* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 27 29 35 35 36 36 32 31 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 27 26 27 29 30 30 26 25 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 29 30 31 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 26 21 27 29 39 41 39 41 51 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 6 0 -2 0 4 0 0 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 261 239 230 224 222 230 230 225 215 203 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 158 152 149 147 135 134 137 136 133 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 153 144 137 131 127 115 112 115 117 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -53.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 8 6 7 3 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 72 72 70 70 68 66 67 69 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 5 6 11 13 17 22 22 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 28 33 19 14 37 85 110 123 137 93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 66 82 63 50 50 32 26 32 48 45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 10 5 10 13 2 -1 -5 -13 -8 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 369 417 283 149 -5 -67 65 129 152 165 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 12 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 53 45 23 22 34 23 7 19 24 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -6. -13. -21. -27. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 10. 10. 11. 11. 7. 6. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/28/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)