* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 26 24 23 21 22 23 24 26 30 32 37 V (KT) LAND 35 30 26 24 23 21 22 23 24 26 30 32 37 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 27 25 23 21 22 23 24 27 30 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 23 19 18 16 14 18 13 14 15 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 251 249 255 252 247 254 235 273 263 259 236 247 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 155 155 158 160 162 163 164 165 164 163 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 66 67 64 65 65 65 65 63 63 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 34 46 56 62 79 83 83 103 140 146 162 200 MB DIV 29 47 41 74 88 29 45 31 46 31 58 74 108 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 401 439 492 538 589 716 853 964 1049 1122 1209 1278 1327 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.4 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 155.9 156.8 157.6 158.3 159.0 160.4 161.8 162.9 163.8 164.7 165.8 166.5 167.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 50 57 56 45 41 40 40 41 47 49 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -9. -5. -3. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##