* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 65 63 52 40 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 65 63 52 40 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 66 64 56 49 46 43 39 36 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 21 19 25 29 28 25 25 18 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 2 -1 3 5 7 6 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 295 287 270 255 246 240 227 244 243 249 248 271 313 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 163 164 164 165 165 165 163 161 160 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 63 60 56 57 59 59 61 67 72 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 14 13 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 11 22 21 17 25 4 -22 -32 -15 -19 -20 200 MB DIV 62 45 47 69 59 85 41 33 29 25 49 57 51 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 1 -6 6 0 LAND (KM) 279 250 222 191 159 132 122 142 171 214 255 270 272 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 102.9 102.7 102.5 102.4 102.4 102.9 103.5 104.2 104.9 105.7 106.2 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 36 33 31 30 29 30 30 31 35 47 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -11. -18. -19. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 5. 3. -8. -20. -28. -34. -40. -46. -48. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##