* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 47 52 57 55 55 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 47 52 57 55 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 42 49 57 58 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 19 17 20 13 14 9 7 29 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -6 1 8 12 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 339 333 336 347 345 346 333 219 217 201 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.7 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 156 153 148 141 137 134 112 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 131 131 130 127 123 118 117 116 97 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 6 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 64 64 66 67 68 68 63 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 12 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 66 62 65 49 49 64 90 106 104 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 18 -3 -11 -12 1 -4 46 46 63 87 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 -3 0 0 0 6 42 89 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 881 900 919 938 922 821 715 605 476 324 218 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 29.0 29.8 30.8 32.2 34.7 38.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 69.4 69.7 70.0 70.3 71.1 71.7 72.1 72.4 72.5 72.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 10 14 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 50 48 48 50 53 37 28 20 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -3. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 22. 27. 25. 25. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)