* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992015 09/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 34 36 34 27 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 26 27 27 27 27 29 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 23 30 22 41 47 57 69 88 96 102 93 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 2 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -12 -4 -17 -3 SHEAR DIR 267 234 221 214 220 212 224 213 206 203 205 210 210 SST (C) 29.8 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.2 26.6 26.1 25.4 23.8 22.5 19.6 16.1 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 160 152 145 141 121 115 109 97 90 80 73 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 139 131 125 105 99 94 85 79 72 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 72 72 72 71 71 67 60 57 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 37 23 22 34 78 128 158 188 151 121 49 42 200 MB DIV 52 73 71 52 56 77 47 65 80 59 84 68 75 700-850 TADV 8 5 10 10 0 0 -12 -7 8 24 67 88 58 LAND (KM) 345 389 258 106 -27 -208 -162 -181 -169 -207 -346 -598 -637 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 26.0 27.4 28.8 30.1 32.4 33.9 35.6 37.8 40.3 43.1 46.4 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.3 85.8 85.3 84.8 83.2 81.1 78.9 77.6 77.0 76.5 76.7 76.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 14 14 12 12 12 13 13 16 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 65 42 19 21 26 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 21. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 3. -6. -17. -30. -41. -52. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 9. 2. -8. -20. -33. -50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992015 INVEST 09/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992015 INVEST 09/28/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)