* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 21 19 17 17 17 18 19 21 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 25 22 17 14 21 19 22 21 24 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 0 1 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 242 252 259 259 257 243 238 244 239 221 230 207 251 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 155 155 156 156 158 160 162 163 164 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 63 67 67 66 63 64 61 61 57 56 65 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 23 33 43 55 53 53 71 83 100 115 148 156 179 200 MB DIV 39 27 45 72 46 31 31 34 47 54 68 80 101 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -11 -2 LAND (KM) 432 476 532 581 632 709 807 870 918 997 1087 1187 1285 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.6 13.2 12.7 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 156.5 157.4 158.2 158.8 159.4 160.3 161.4 162.1 162.6 163.3 164.4 165.4 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 49 57 58 54 47 43 40 38 36 37 39 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -10. -4. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##