* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 64 63 60 52 37 32 28 23 21 22 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 64 63 60 52 37 32 28 23 21 22 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 65 65 63 55 45 41 39 38 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 19 22 28 27 18 20 20 18 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 1 1 2 5 4 5 3 6 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 275 259 242 241 234 228 233 248 275 297 321 334 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 167 167 167 167 168 169 168 167 166 164 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 11 8 10 7 10 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 63 61 58 62 67 69 71 69 72 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 16 17 16 14 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 11 21 22 14 14 20 6 -30 -27 -26 -13 0 200 MB DIV 48 47 60 59 51 62 67 69 22 36 47 73 55 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 0 4 7 -3 LAND (KM) 224 200 177 162 144 108 88 88 146 199 226 242 278 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 102.9 102.6 102.5 102.3 102.3 102.6 103.2 104.1 104.9 105.5 106.2 107.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 32 31 32 31 31 31 30 30 32 41 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 3. 0. -8. -23. -28. -32. -37. -39. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##